Magnussen Aviation Fatigue Risk Model

Understand fatigue.
Before the roster
is flown.

A connected view of aviation fatigue risk. Bringing roster intelligence, transparent modelling and real-world observations into one explainable platform.

Australian-developed · Transparent by design
A continuous view of fatigue and recoveryConceptual illustration connecting roster inputs, a continuous model and independent observations.01 / ROSTER INPUTS02 / CONTINUOUS MODEL03 / OBSERVATIONSTIME DOES NOT RESET.NEITHER SHOULD THE ANALYSIS.SYSTEM CONCEPT · ROSTER → MODEL → OBSERVATIONS
01Model the pattern.
02Measure the real world.
03Improve the conversation.
The whole roster. The whole picture.

Fatigue doesn’t start
at sign-on.

A duty tells you when someone works.
The pattern tells you what came before.

Early starts, changing duty times, sleep opportunity and recovery can interact across days and roster cycles. Evaluating each duty in isolation can leave important questions unanswered.

MAFRM follows that continuity: inspect the roster, examine cumulative modelled exposure and make the assumptions visible.

Understand the modelling approach

Test the proposal.
Understand the trade-offs.

Explore a hypothetical transition after three early duties. Switch the fourth day to see the question a scenario comparison could help investigate.

One change. A different recovery opportunity.

Illustrative scenario · synthetic data

A / Early-to-late transition

Day 01 / Early
04:00–12:00
Day 02 / Early
04:00–12:00
Day 03 / Early
04:00–12:00
Day 04 / Proposal
12:00–20:00
ILLUSTRATIVE COMPARISON / RELATIVE SCALEDAY 01DAY 02DAY 03DAY 04

The fourth duty starts at 12:00 and ends at 20:00. The review question is how this transition interacts with prior early starts and waking time.

Illustrative scenario using synthetic data. It demonstrates the comparison workflow rather than a live MAFRM result. Sleep, commute and starting-state assumptions are not included in this example.

Three perspectives.
A stronger evidence base.

Connect what was scheduled, what the model indicates and what independent observations show—without confusing one for another.

Roster intelligence

Inspect duties, transitions and rest windows. Compare alternative proposals against a common baseline.

Inspect the pattern

Continuous modelling

Carry model state across time. Make starting assumptions, configuration and interpretation explicit.

Explore the model

Real-world observations

Keep sleep, physiological observations, fatigue reports and functional testing in a separate evidence layer.

Follow the evidence
Evidence-led by design

Model it.
Measure it.
Improve it.

MAFRM brings together roster review, continuous modelling and scenario comparison. Its roadmap extends this foundation into connected roster history, real-world observations and independent performance evaluation.

The aim is simple: make the reasoning behind each result visible, keep evidence types distinct and improve the quality of fatigue-risk conversations.

Help shape what comes next

A better question starts
with a conversation.

Developing a roster proposal, investigating an operational pattern or planning fatigue research? Let’s explore where MAFRM could contribute.

Discuss MAFRM